Best States for Commercial Construction: The 2026 Commercial Builder Opportunity Index

How the index is built

Download the calculations (CSV)

How the Commercial Builder Opportunity Index is built

The index scores 50 states and DC from 0 to 100 on six public measures of demand, competition and pay for commercial and institutional building contractors (NAICS 236220). Weights favor the one measure that tracks the industry directly: commercial building job growth.

Commercial Builder Opportunity Index (CBOI): A weighted average of six component scores: CBOI = (25 x A + 15 x B + 20 x C + 10 x D + 15 x E + 15 x F) / 100. A is NAICS 236220 job growth 2020 to 2025, B population growth 2020 to 2025, C competition (establishments per 100,000 residents, inverted), D the 236220 weekly wage relative to all private industries, E construction real GDP growth 2020 to 2025, F federal NAICS 236220 contract obligations per resident in FY2025.

NAICS 236220: Commercial and Institutional Building Construction: establishments primarily responsible for building commercial and institutional buildings, including new work, additions, alterations, maintenance and repairs (Census NAICS definition). Specialty trade subcontractors are classified elsewhere.

Scaling: each component is winsorized at its 5th and 95th percentile across the states with data, then rescaled with min-max so the floor scores 0 and the ceiling 100. Winsorizing stops three federal outliers (District of Columbia at $706.00, Alaska at $674.15 and Hawaii at $649.51 per resident in FY2025) from compressing every other state into the bottom of the scale.

Why these weights: commercial building job growth (25) is the only component measured inside NAICS 236220 over the full 2020 to 2025 window, so it carries the most weight. Competition (20) is the only supply-side measure. Population growth, construction GDP growth and federal dollars (15 each) describe demand around the industry. Relative pay (10) gets the least weight because it cuts both ways: a high ratio signals well-paid, higher-value work, but it is also a labor cost. The sensitivity test below inverts it.

Missing data: BLS did not disclose 2025 NAICS 236220 employment and wages for Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wyoming (disclosure code N) to protect employer confidentiality (BLS QCEW Q&A). For those six, components A and D are missing and the remaining four weights are rescaled to sum to 100. Their ranks are less certain than the rest.

This report ranks; it does not describe each state. Establishment counts, employment and wages by state are in the companion atlas, Commercial Construction Companies by State. The index uses those inputs only as components.

Best states for commercial construction: the 2026 ranking of 50 states and DC

Arizona leads with 78.4, followed by South Carolina (70.3), Utah (69.7), Tennessee (68.5) and North Carolina (68.4). All 10 of the top 10 are in the South or Mountain West. New York (24.9), Maryland (26.2) and California (28.6) score lowest.

The top 10 in 2026 are Arizona, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, Idaho, Montana, Florida, Nevada. Every one of them grew NAICS 236220 employment faster than the U.S. rate of 17.2% from 2020 to 2025 (BLS QCEW), and every one grew its population faster than the U.S. rate of 3.1% (Census Vintage 2025).

Arizona scores 78.4. Its commercial building employment grew 49.1% from 2020 to 2025, the fastest of the 45 states with disclosed data, and its real construction GDP grew 20.5%, second to Idaho at 26.1% (BEA SAGDP9).

The five lowest scores belong to North Dakota, Oregon, California, Maryland, New York. Low competition is the strongest component for most of them: in New York, competition supplies 79% of the score, because New York has 13.1 establishments per 100,000 residents against a U.S. figure of 17.1. Weak growth pulls them down: New York commercial building jobs grew 5.3% and its real construction GDP changed -10.2% from 2020 to 2025.

Sensitivity test: does the top 10 survive different weights?

Mostly yes. Equal weights keep 10 of the baseline top 10; the most different weight set, competition-first, keeps 8. 8 states stay in the top 10 under all five weight sets, and Arizona is first in all five.

Five weight sets were tested: baseline, equal weights (16.7% each), growth-first, private market only (federal weight set to 0) and competition-first (competition at 35%). A cost view keeps baseline weights but scores lower relative pay higher, and six leave-one-out runs drop one component at a time.

Rank stability is high near the top. The Spearman rank correlation with the baseline is 0.979 for equal weights, 0.962 for growth-first, 0.937 for private only and 0.869 for competition-first. The lowest correlation, 0.858, comes from dropping competition entirely, which shows that component reorders the middle of the table more than any other.

The 8 states in the top 10 under every weight set are Arizona, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, Florida, Nevada. Idaho and Montana are the fragile members of the baseline top 10: Idaho ranges from 2 to 24 and Montana from 3 to 11 across the five weight sets, because both have many builders per resident (33.1 and 27.9 per 100,000).

The cost view changes the leader. When lower relative pay scores higher, Texas moves to first: its NAICS 236220 weekly wage is 1.29 times the state's all-private wage, below the U.S. ratio of 1.36. Arizona drops to second. The cost view keeps 8 of the baseline top 10.

Where one component drives the rank

13 states lose 10 or more places when a single component is removed. Alaska depends most on federal dollars, South Dakota on job growth, Delaware on population growth.

Alaska ranks 14 on baseline weights but 36 without the federal component. It received $674.15 per resident in FY2025 NAICS 236220 federal obligations (USAspending), the second-highest figure after the District of Columbia. A single large federal program can move this component from one year to the next; see Federal Construction Contracts by State for the agency and recipient detail.

South Dakota ranks 21 but 40 without job growth. Its NAICS 236220 employment grew 30.1% from 2020 to 2025, yet it has the most establishments per resident in the country (38.3 per 100,000), and its March 2026 employment was -5.8% below March 2025 (preliminary QCEW).

At the bottom of the table, the pattern reverses: low competition is often the only strong component. Competition supplies 69% of California's score, 64% of Washington's and 79% of New York's.

Growth versus competition: four groups of states

Splitting states at the median job growth (19.5%) and median density (18.7 establishments per 100,000 residents) gives four groups. The open-growth group, fast growth with fewer builders per resident, holds 9 states including Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina and Texas.

Open growth: Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Michigan, Virginia, Illinois, West Virginia. These states combine above-median NAICS 236220 job growth from 2020 to 2025 with at or below-median density in 2025.

Crowded growth states, such as South Carolina, Utah, Idaho and Florida, grew fast but already have more builders per resident than the median state. Quiet and open states, mostly in the Northeast, Great Lakes and Pacific Coast, have fewer builders per resident but slower growth. Quiet and open states have the lowest average index score of the four groups (38.4).

Component deep-dives

Each component tells a different story. Job growth and construction GDP growth favor the Mountain West and Southeast; low competition favors large coastal states; federal dollars per resident favor DC, Alaska, Hawaii, South Dakota and Montana.

A. Commercial building job growth (25%). The five fastest-growing states for NAICS 236220 employment, 2020 to 2025, were Arizona (49.1%), Utah (41.3%), Idaho (37.4%), Texas (32.8%), South Dakota (30.1%). Three states lost jobs: Washington (-10.4%), Oregon (-7.4%) and Maryland (-2.9%) (BLS QCEW).

B. Population growth (15%). The fastest-growing populations, July 2020 to July 2025, were Idaho (9.8%), Florida (8.7%), South Carolina (8.5%), Texas (8.5%), Utah (7.8%) (Census Vintage 2025). Population growth is a lagging signal for commercial work: schools, clinics and retail follow households.

C. Competition (20%). The fewest NAICS 236220 establishments per 100,000 residents in 2025 were in Washington (11.0), Wisconsin (11.1), Massachusetts (12.7), New Jersey (12.9), California (13.0). Density counts worksites, not firm size, so a state with few large general contractors can look less competitive than it is.

D. Relative pay (10%). The highest ratios of NAICS 236220 weekly wage to the all-private wage in 2025 were South Carolina (1.62), Nevada (1.62), Montana (1.61), Missouri (1.58), Wisconsin (1.57). The U.S. ratio was 1.36: $2,061 against $1,521 a week (BLS QCEW).

E. Construction real GDP growth (15%). Real construction GDP (all of NAICS 23, chained 2017 dollars) grew fastest from 2020 to 2025 in Idaho (26.1%), Arizona (20.5%), Tennessee (17.9%), New Hampshire (13.4%), Utah (12.9%). Across the United States it was essentially flat, 0.03%, as the BEA September 30, 2026 revision shows (BEA SAGDP9).

F. Federal building dollars per resident (15%). FY2025 NAICS 236220 contract obligations by place of performance were highest per resident in District of Columbia ($706.00), Alaska ($674.15), Hawaii ($649.51), South Dakota ($271.23), Montana ($262.72). The 50-state and DC figure was $75.76 per resident (USAspending).

Latest quarter check: first quarter 2026

Preliminary QCEW data for March 2026 support the ranking. 8 of the baseline top 10 added NAICS 236220 jobs faster than the U.S. rate of 3.2% over the year.

The two exceptions were Montana (2.5%) and Nevada (1.8%), which still grew. 8 states had fewer NAICS 236220 jobs in March 2026 than in March 2025: South Dakota, Kansas, New Jersey, Kentucky, Washington, Oregon, California, New York (BLS QCEW, first quarter 2026, released 2026-08-28).

Seven of those eight rank 27th or lower on the index. South Dakota is the main tension: it ranks in the top half on 2020 to 2025 growth but lost jobs over the latest year. Quarterly data are preliminary and are revised with the next release.

What the index cannot tell you

The index measures conditions in public statistics, not profit, backlog or project pipelines. It is a screening tool, not a forecast.

• It does not measure margins, bonding capacity, insurance costs, licensing rules, taxes or permitting times, which differ by state and can matter more than demand.
• QCEW counts establishments (worksites) and payroll jobs; it omits self-employed owners and counts a multi-state builder in each state where it has a worksite.
• Six jurisdictions lack NAICS 236220 employment and wage data, so their scores rest on four components.
• Construction GDP covers all of NAICS 23, including residential and heavy civil work, not only commercial buildings.
• Federal obligations are one fiscal year and can swing with single large awards; place of performance is where work happens, not where the contractor is based.
• The 2020 baseline was a pandemic year. Growth from a depressed 2020 base flatters states that fell further that year.
• Weights are a judgment. The sensitivity test shows which conclusions depend on them.

Key findings

1. Arizona ranks first on the 2026 Commercial Builder Opportunity Index with 78.4 of 100.^{[1][2][3][6][8][10]}
2. Arizona private NAICS 236220 employment grew 49.1% from 2020 to 2025, the fastest of 45 states with disclosed data.^[1][2]
3. U.S. private NAICS 236220 employment grew 17.2% from 2020 to 2025, from 649,775 to 761,316 jobs.^[1][2]
4. 8 states stay in the top 10 under all five weight sets: Arizona, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, Florida, Nevada.^{[1][2][3][6][8][10]}
5. Equal weights keep 10 of the baseline top 10; competition-first weights keep 8.^{[1][2][3][6][8][10]}
6. U.S. real construction GDP was flat from 2020 to 2025 (0.03%), while Idaho grew 26.1% and California fell 13.2%.^[8][9]
7. Washington had the fewest NAICS 236220 establishments per 100,000 residents in 2025 (11.0); South Dakota had the most (38.3).^[1][6]
8. Alaska falls from rank 14 to 36 when federal dollars are removed; it received $674.15 per resident in FY2025.^[10][6]
9. 9 states combine above-median job growth with at or below-median builder density, including Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina and Texas.^[1][2][6]
10. 8 of the index top 10 grew NAICS 236220 jobs faster than the U.S. rate of 3.2% from March 2025 to March 2026 (preliminary).^[4][5]
11. 8 states had fewer NAICS 236220 jobs in March 2026 than a year earlier, including California, New York and Washington.^[4][5]
12. Florida ranks 9 of 51 (62.8), with the second-fastest population growth from 2020 to 2025 (8.7%).^[1][6]
13. The U.S. NAICS 236220 weekly wage was $2,061 in 2025, 1.36 times the all-private wage of $1,521.^[1][3]

Summary for decision makers

• Arizona ranks first (78.4), followed by South Carolina (70.3), Utah (69.7), Tennessee (68.5) and North Carolina (68.4).
• All of the top 10 states are in the South or Mountain West; Florida ranks ninth.
• The top 10 is stable: 8 states hold their place under all five weight sets, and Arizona is first in each.
• Idaho and Montana are the fragile entries: both fall out of the top 10 when competition is weighted more heavily.
• New York (24.9), Maryland (26.2) and California (28.6) rank lowest; low builder density is their main strength.
• 9 states combine fast job growth with below-median builder density, the open-growth group.
• Preliminary March 2026 data back the ranking: 8 of the top 10 grew faster than the U.S. rate of 3.2%.

Frequently asked questions

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Methodology

Source selection: only public, primary statistical sources with state detail for all 50 states and DC were used: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) open-data CSV slices for NAICS 236220 and all private industries, Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates, BEA real GDP by state (SAGDP9), and USAspending.gov federal contract obligations. All files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept unmodified in the report's raw folder.

Inclusion and exclusion: private ownership (own_code 5) at state level (agglvl 58 for NAICS 236220, 51 for all industries). Territories are excluded. The District of Columbia is included as a state equivalent, giving 51 jurisdictions. USAspending records were filtered to NAICS 236220, award types A to D (contracts), place of performance by state, fiscal year 2025 (2024-10-01 to 2025-09-30).

Components: A = (2025 / 2020 NAICS 236220 annual average employment – 1) x 100. B = (July 1 2025 / July 1 2020 population – 1) x 100. C = 2025 NAICS 236220 establishments / 2025 population x 100,000, inverted. D = 2025 NAICS 236220 average weekly wage / 2025 all-private average weekly wage. E = (2025 / 2020 real construction GDP – 1) x 100. F = FY2025 obligations / 2025 population.

Scaling and weights: each component is winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentile of states with data and min-max scaled to 0 to 100. Baseline weights are A 25, B 15, C 20, D 10, E 15, F 15. Where A and D are missing (six jurisdictions), the remaining weights are rescaled. Ranks are by unrounded score.

Sensitivity: the index was recomputed under equal, growth-first, private-only and competition-first weights, a cost view with D inverted, and six leave-one-out runs. Stability is reported as the number of baseline top-10 states retained and the Spearman rank correlation.

Conflicting numbers: no two sources measure the same quantity here, so no reconciliation was needed. USAspending's own per-capita field uses 2020 Census population; this report divides by Vintage 2025 population instead, so per-resident figures differ from the USAspending interface.

Limitations: see the section on what the index cannot tell you. QCEW first quarter 2026 data are preliminary. Construction GDP covers all of NAICS 23. Federal obligations are a single fiscal year.

Last updated 2026-10-04. Scripts in the scripts folder reproduce every number from the raw files.

This report presents published data with its limitations. It is not legal, financial or investment advice.

Sources, ranked by quality

Tier 1: primary and official sources (16)

• [1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW open data, NAICS 236220, 2025 annual averages (CSV slice). 2025 annual average. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [2] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW open data, NAICS 236220, 2020 annual averages (CSV slice). 2020 annual average. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [3] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW open data, all industries (NAICS 10), 2025 annual averages (CSV slice). 2025 annual average. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [4] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW open data, NAICS 236220, first quarter 2026 (CSV slice, preliminary). 2026 Q1. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [5] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW open data, NAICS 236220, first quarter 2025 (CSV slice). 2025 Q1. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [6] U.S. Census Bureau. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States and States, Vintage 2025 (NST-EST2025-ALLDATA). July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [7] U.S. Census Bureau. State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2025. Vintage 2025. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [8] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. SAGDP9 Real GDP by state, by industry, 1997 to 2025 (SAGDP.zip). 2020 to 2025, revised September 30, 2026. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [9] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State (release page). Release of September 30, 2026. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [10] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (USAspending.gov). USAspending API: spending_by_geography endpoint contract (queried for NAICS 236220, place of performance, FY2024 and FY2025). FY2025 (2024-10-01 to 2025-09-30). Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [11] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW release calendar. Schedule as of September 15, 2026. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [12] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW Questions and Answers (confidentiality and disclosure). Current. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [13] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW Overview. Current. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [14] U.S. Census Bureau. NAICS 2022 definition: 236220 Commercial and Institutional Building Construction. NAICS 2022. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [15] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. QCEW Open Data Access: CSV data slices. Current. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [16] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. BEA Regional Data: download zip files. Current. Accessed 2026-10-04.

Tier 2: trade bodies, market research, company data (1)

• [19] Associated Builders and Contractors, New Jersey Chapter. Georgia Is the No. 1 State for Construction (Merit Shop Scorecard). 2023 scorecard. Accessed 2026-10-04.

Tier 3: journalism and expert commentary (2)

• [17] CONEXPO-CON/AGG (Association of Equipment Manufacturers). 10 Best States for Construction Jobs. Published 2026-08-11. Accessed 2026-10-04.
• [18] Construction Dive. Top states for commercial construction spending. Published 2025-06-02. Accessed 2026-10-04.