Data Center Power Demand vs. Grid Capacity: Interconnection Queues by Region, 2026

Data center power demand and grid capacity by region, side by side

The regions differ less in how many projects want to connect than in how fast they connect them. Among the ISO/RTOs, ERCOT has the largest queue relative to its peak and the shortest wait; PJM, home to the largest data center cluster, has a queue smaller than its peak and one of the longest waits.

At the end of 2025, active generation and storage requests equaled 4.79 times 2025 peak load in ERCOT, 3.13 times in MISO, 3.16 times in SPP and 3.39 times in CAISO, but 0.95 times in PJM and 0.82 times in the non-ISO Southeast (LBNL data file).

A large queue is not available power. LBNL notes that queue capacity is nameplate, that solar and wind contribute less at peak than dispatchable plants, and that most requests are withdrawn. Applying each region's historical completion rate, ERCOT's queue would still equal 116.5% of its peak, MISO's 43.7% and PJM's 12.6% (CB&C calculation, see Original synthesis).

PJM's low ratio partly reflects process: PJM paused review of new requests in 2022 until 2026 while moving to a cluster process, and CAISO, NYISO and ISO-NE accepted few or no new requests in 2025 (LBNL Queued Up 2026).

Large-load and data center interconnection requests by grid operator

Grid operators now publish large-load figures, but each measures something different. ERCOT's request volume dwarfs every other region; New England reports almost none.

ERCOT's 474 GW of large-load requests equals 5.6 times its 2025 peak of 85.2 GW. ERCOT also reported that 315 projects had no qualifying study and that approximately 205 GW is eligible for Batch Zero, the first batch study in a framework ERCOT ties to Senate Bill 6; eligible loads must post financial security of $50,000 per MW (ERCOT).

Requests overstate likely load. NERC reports that ERCOT reduced new data center projections to reflect observed use: average peak consumption at sites in service from 2022 to 2024 was 49.8% of the requested MW. After adjustments, NERC's ERCOT forecast includes 23 GW of data centers among 45 GW of large loads by 2030 (NERC).

Elsewhere: MISO's expedited reviews supported 9.7 GW of large-load additions in 2025 and 26.4 GW in 2026 (MISO); NYISO's large-load queue grew from 6 projects and 1,045 MW in 2022 to 51 projects and nearly 12,670 MW by May 1, 2026, 43.7% of its 2025 peak (NYISO); ISO-NE included two projects totaling 285 MW of nameplate in its 2026 forecast (ISO-NE); and the CEC expects data center load in the CAISO grid to grow 1.8 GW by 2030 (CAISO).

How long grid interconnection takes in each region

The median wait has nearly tripled since 2008. The spread between regions is wider than the national trend: ERCOT's connect-and-manage model keeps waits near four years while CAISO's exceed nine.

The national median rose from 33.5 months for projects online in 2010 to 37.8 in 2015 and 60.8 in 2025, an increase of 23.0 months in a decade (LBNL data file). LBNL's own summary rounds the 2025 figure to 61 months.

Time to the interconnection agreement alone reached a median of 44.8 months in 2025; ERCOT's was 22.1 months and SPP's 66.0. After the agreement, the median project took another 30.7 months to reach operation in 2025, and PJM's small 2025 sample took 68.1 months (LBNL data file).

ERCOT is not under FERC jurisdiction and generators there do not pay for network upgrades, which LBNL cites as a likely reason for ERCOT's higher rate of executed interconnection agreements. CAISO, ERCOT, SPP and MISO each processed more interconnection agreements in 2025 than in any prior year (LBNL Queued Up 2026).

Interconnection queue: The list of projects that have formally asked a transmission provider to connect to the grid. Each request goes through studies that identify required upgrades and assign their costs, ending in an interconnection agreement; most requests withdraw before that point.

How much queued capacity gets built

Most queued capacity never operates. About 13% of capacity requested from 2000 to 2020 was online by the end of 2025, and only ERCOT completed more than a fifth.

About 19% of projects and 13% of capacity requested from 2000 to 2020 reached commercial operation by the end of 2025. Over 750 GW withdrew in 2025 while about 600 GW of new requests arrived, and only 53 GW of the 2,290 GW active in 2024 came online in 2025, a throughput of 2% (LBNL Queued Up 2026).

The mix is shifting toward dispatchable plants that NERC counts more heavily at peak: active natural gas capacity rose 86% in 2025 to 253 GW, while solar, storage and wind requests fell (LBNL). MISO reported in August 2026 that its active generator queue stood at 167 GW, down 46% from 308 GW in December 2024, after it capped total queue size (MISO).

How much electricity US data centers use and are projected to use

LBNL raised its outlook in June 2026. Its 2028 Reference Case lands mid-range of the 2024 report, and the new 2030 range runs from roughly 2.7 to 4.4 times today's use.

Data center electricity use climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 under the 2024 Report (DOE); the 2025 Update revised history slightly down and puts 2024 at 192 TWh (LBNL). LBNL attributes 33% of total US load growth from 2024 to 2030 to data centers in its Reference Case.

Other forecasts bracket LBNL. LBNL places IEA's 2030 projection at about 430 TWh and EPRI's 2026 range at roughly 390 to 800 TWh. BloombergNEF projects 106 GW of US data center demand by 2035, a 36% upward revision, as reported by Axios. These are model estimates with different scopes and should be compared as a range.

EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts commercial sector sales, which include data centers alongside offices and stores, rising 3.8% in 2026 to 1,549 billion kWh and 2.8% in 2027 (EIA STEO Table 7a; EIA). In Virginia, commercial sales rose nearly 30.0 million MWh from 2019 to 2025, which EIA attributes largely to data centers (EIA).

Where data center investment meets NERC reliability risk

More than half of state-allocated announced investment in the CB&C data center construction projects registry sits in states whose main grid area NERC rates high risk by 2030. The two largest single-state totals, New Mexico and Kentucky, are exceptions.

NERC classes MISO as high risk from 2028 and PJM, Texas RE-ERCOT, WECC-Basin and WECC-Northwest from 2029; MRO-SPP, NPCC-New York and SERC-East are among eight elevated-risk areas (NERC 2025 LTRA). PJM's anticipated reserve margin falls from 29.7% in 2026 to 13.9% in 2030 against a reference level of 26.3%; MISO's falls to 4.3% against 8.5%.

Mapping the registry's state totals to the dominant grid region in each state's queue data, $374.3 billion (54.6%) is in high-risk areas, $34.1 billion (5.0%) in elevated-risk areas and $277.5 billion (40.5%) in normal-risk areas. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Indiana lead the high-risk group.

The normal-risk total is concentrated in two entries: Project Jupiter in New Mexico (WECC-Southwest) and the Paducah campus in Kentucky (SERC-Central), which the registry records with up to 4.6 GW of dedicated generation planned. State-level mapping is approximate: Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota and New Mexico are split among regions.

Interconnection rules: Order No. 2023 and the 2026 large-load proceedings

Federal reform has so far targeted the generator queue. Large-load rules are being set region by region, with FERC's June 2026 orders the first coordinated step.

Order No. 2023 (88 FR 61014) requires cluster studies on a first-ready, first-served basis, site control at submission, readiness deposits and withdrawal penalties, and penalizes transmission providers for late studies (Federal Register). LBNL notes most of its 2025 data pre-date these reforms.

On 2026-06-18 FERC opened section 206 proceedings for six RTO/ISOs. In the SPP order it directed SPP and its transmission owners to respond within 60 days on whether the tariff remains just and reasonable without provisions for alternative transmission technologies, transparency on network upgrade costs for large loads and a pro forma cost recovery agreement, and asked for a 30-day report on generation adequacy (FERC, EL26-68; 91 FR 37972). SPP's HILL process, approved in January 2026, offers a 90-day study path for large loads paired with generation (SPP).

What the grid numbers mean for data center construction schedules

Power timelines now run longer than typical building timelines, so grid status is a schedule input for the trades.

With generator interconnection medians of 48.0 to 109.6 months by region and large-load studies in ERCOT now gated by financial security and batch study windows, power availability shapes when shells, substations and electrical fit-outs proceed. Announced projects and Census spending are tracked in our data center construction projects registry; workforce constraints for the electrical trades are covered in electrician shortage by state; and spending trends in commercial construction spending and warehouse construction.

Ratios behind the comparison

Download the calculations (CSV)

Where the numbers diverge

1. US data centers used an estimated 192 TWh of electricity in 2024, 4.7% of US consumption (LBNL 2025 Update).^[1]
2. LBNL's Reference Case projects 649 TWh in 2030, 11.8% of forecast US electricity; its full range is 521 to 843 TWh, or 9.5% to 15.3% (LBNL).^[1]
3. The 2024 LBNL report estimated 176 TWh (4.4%) for 2023 and 6.7% to 12% for 2028; the 2025 Update's 2028 Reference Case of 464 TWh sits at 54.5% of that earlier range (DOE; LBNL).^[2][1]
4. LBNL estimates data centers would need 148 GW of grid interconnection capacity in 2030 at 50% utilization, an average increase of 17.4 GW per year from 2024 (LBNL).^[1]
5. At the end of 2025, 2,061 GW of generation and storage was seeking interconnection in the US, 10% less than a year earlier (LBNL Queued Up 2026).^[3]
6. The median project built in 2025 took 61 months from interconnection request to commercial operation, compared with 22 months in 2008 (LBNL).^[3]
7. For projects online in 2025, the median request-to-operation time was 48.0 months in ERCOT, 56.1 in SPP, 82.6 in PJM and 109.6 in CAISO (LBNL data file).^[4]
8. Only 24.3% of capacity requested in ERCOT from 2000 to 2020 reached operation by the end of 2025, the highest of nine regions; CAISO's rate was 8.2% (CB&C calculation from LBNL data).^[4]
9. Active queue capacity equals 4.79 times 2025 peak load in ERCOT, 3.13 times in MISO and 0.95 times in PJM (CB&C calculation from LBNL data).^[4]
10. ERCOT tracked approximately 474 GW of large loads seeking interconnection in June 2026, about 90% data centers (ERCOT).^[10]
11. PJM's January 2026 forecast puts its summer peak at 222,106 MW in 2036, 65,733 MW above the 10-year starting point, with data center adjustments in 14 zones (PJM).^[9]
12. NERC's 2025 LTRA finds 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over 10 years and says new data centers account for most projected demand growth (NERC).^[5]
13. Summer peak load in PJM's Dominion zone was 23,905 MW in 2025, 23% above 2019 (EIA).^[8]
14. States mapped to NERC high-risk areas account for $374.3 billion (54.6%) of $685.9 billion in state-allocated announced data center investment; New Mexico and Kentucky, the two largest single-state totals, map to normal-risk areas.^[20][5][4]

Summary

• LBNL's June 2026 update puts US data center electricity use at 192 TWh in 2024 (4.7% of US electricity) and 649 TWh in 2030 in its Reference Case (11.8%), with a range of 521 to 843 TWh.
• The 2030 Reference Case is 3.38 times the 2024 level, an implied growth rate of 22.5% a year.
• US interconnection queues held 2,061 GW of generation and storage at the end of 2025; the median project built in 2025 took 61 months from request to operation.
• Waits differ by region: 48.0 months in ERCOT and 56.1 in SPP versus 82.6 in PJM and 109.6 in CAISO for projects online in 2025.
• Queued capacity is 4.79 times 2025 peak load in ERCOT but 0.95 times in PJM, the region with the largest data center concentration in the Dominion zone.
• NERC's 2025 LTRA rates 13 of 23 areas at elevated or high risk; MISO, PJM and ERCOT reach high risk by 2028 or 2029.
• States whose main grid area NERC rates high risk by 2030 hold $374.3 billion, or 54.6%, of state-allocated announced data center investment in the CB&C registry.
• FERC opened six section 206 proceedings on large-load interconnection on 2026-06-18; Order No. 2023 covers generators, not loads.

Frequently asked questions

Related guides, services and research

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• Construction GDP by State: Share of Each Economy, Real Growth and Output per Worker, 2025
• Commercial Construction Spending Tracker: August 2026 Data by Building Type
• Commercial Construction Costs 2026: The CB&C Margin Squeeze Index
• Data Center Construction Projects in the US: 44 Announcements Worth $735.9 Billion, Checked Against Census Spending

Methodology

Scope: this report compares nine US grid regions used by LBNL's Queued Up data (seven ISO/RTOs plus non-ISO Southeast and West) on generator queue size, regional peak load, interconnection duration, completion rates, published large-load figures and NERC risk class, and summarizes national data center electricity estimates. It links to, and does not repeat, the CB&C data center construction projects registry.

Source selection: primary sources only for statistics (LBNL, NERC, EIA, FERC via the Federal Register, and ISO/RTO publications), using the latest release of each as of 2026-10-18: LBNL Queued Up 2026 (June 2026, data through 2025), LBNL 2025 Update (June 2026), NERC 2025 LTRA (January 2026), EIA STEO (2026-10-06). Market research estimates (BloombergNEF via Axios; IEA and EPRI as characterized by LBNL) are shown only as comparators.

Conflicts: where LBNL's slide text and data file differ by rounding (61 vs 60.8 months for 2025), the data file value is used in tables and charts and the slide value is cited as LBNL's summary. LBNL's 2024 and 2025 reports estimate history differently; each value is labeled with its report vintage.

Derived metrics: queue-to-peak ratios divide LBNL active queue capacity by NERC 2025 peak load as published in the LBNL data file; completion rates are capacity-weighted from LBNL tab 25; the risk overlap assigns each registry state to the region holding the largest share of its active queue MW (LBNL project-level data) and then to the matching NERC area using NERC's footprint descriptions. All calculations are in scripts/ and derived_metrics.csv.

Limitations: generator queues and load queues are separate and not additive; queue MW are nameplate, not accredited capacity; small regional samples make some medians volatile; large-load figures from grid operators use different definitions; registry dollars are announcements, not spending. This report does not assess any individual site.

Last updated 2026-10-18. Planned refresh after the next LBNL Queued Up edition, the next NERC LTRA, or a FERC final action in the large-load proceedings.

This report presents published data with its limitations. It is not legal, financial or investment advice.

Sources, ranked by quality

Tier 1: primary and official sources (19)

• [1] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update. Smith et al. (2026), LBNL-2001758, June 2026. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [2] U.S. Department of Energy (LBNL 2024 Report). DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers. DOE, 2024-12-20, summarizing LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [3] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Queued Up: 2026 Edition. Rand et al. (2026), Queued Up: 2026 Edition, LBNL, June 2026. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [4] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Queued Up 2026 data file (interconnection queue data through 2025). LBNL, Queued Up 2026 data file, tabs as noted. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [5] North American Electric Reliability Corporation. 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment. NERC, 2025 LTRA, January 2026. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [6] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, coal, and renewables (October 2026). EIA, STEO, released 2026-10-06. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [7] U.S. Energy Information Administration. STEO Table 7a: U.S. Electricity Industry Overview (October 2026). EIA, STEO Table 7a, October 2026. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [8] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Commercial electricity sales have soared in Virginia, driven by data centers. EIA, Today in Energy, 2026-05-05. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [9] PJM Interconnection. 2026 PJM Load Forecast Report. PJM, posted 2026-01-14. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [10] ERCOT. ERCOT Update, Senate Committee on Business & Commerce. ERCOT, 2026-07-29. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [11] MISO (hosted by Missouri PSC). MISO Quarterly Update to the Missouri Public Service Commission. MISO, 2026-08-19. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [12] Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Order Instituting Proceeding, Southwest Power Pool, Inc., Docket No. EL26-68-000 (195 FERC 61,213). FERC, issued 2026-06-18. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [13] Southwest Power Pool. FERC approves SPP's large load connection proposal. SPP, 2026-01-15. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [14] New York Independent System Operator. 2026 Power Trends. NYISO, Power Trends 2026, June 2026. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [15] ISO New England. Final Draft 2026 Large Load Forecast. ISO-NE Load Forecast Committee, 2026-03-27. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [16] California ISO. Informational Report on Large Loads and Co-Located Loads, Docket EL26-71. CAISO, 2026-07-20. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [17] California ISO. ISO Board of Governors approves 2025-2026 transmission plan. CAISO, 2026-05-19. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [18] Federal Register / FERC. Improvements to Generator Interconnection Procedures and Agreements (Order No. 2023), 88 FR 61014. FERC Order No. 2023, 88 FR 61014, 2023-09-06. Accessed 2026-10-18.
• [19] Federal Register / FERC. PJM Interconnection, L.L.C., et al.; Notice of Institution of Section 206 Proceeding (Docket EL26-67-000), 91 FR 37972. 91 FR 37972, 2026-06-24. Accessed 2026-10-18.

Tier 2: trade bodies, market research, company data (1)

• [20] Commercial Builders & Contractors. Data Center Construction Projects: US Registry 2026. CB&C registry, state totals table, checked 2026-10-05. Accessed 2026-10-18.

Tier 3: journalism and expert commentary (1)

• [21] Axios. Data centers' power demand surging faster, new analysis shows (BloombergNEF figure). Axios, 2025-12-01, citing BloombergNEF. Accessed 2026-10-18.